While this was a bit technical for me, it is somewhat reassuring -- at least for the next 20 years.
In your estimates of government spending in the future, did you allow for a steady increase (e.g., to cover the ongoing costs of caring for all the elderly and beefing up the defense budget to counter China and North Korea)? If so, have you accounted for any dramatic increases, e.g., as part of a sensitivity analysis? How do such contingencies affect your long-term outlook?
Thanks for your comment. I assumed the budget deficit would continue at around 6 percent of GDP, so spending would still increase, the government would try to reduce the deficit, but then (as has been the pattern over the last 20 years or so), some unforeseen event would drive spending back up undoing the deficit reduction work of the previous few years.
You just gave me a headache.
While this was a bit technical for me, it is somewhat reassuring -- at least for the next 20 years.
In your estimates of government spending in the future, did you allow for a steady increase (e.g., to cover the ongoing costs of caring for all the elderly and beefing up the defense budget to counter China and North Korea)? If so, have you accounted for any dramatic increases, e.g., as part of a sensitivity analysis? How do such contingencies affect your long-term outlook?
Thanks for your comment. I assumed the budget deficit would continue at around 6 percent of GDP, so spending would still increase, the government would try to reduce the deficit, but then (as has been the pattern over the last 20 years or so), some unforeseen event would drive spending back up undoing the deficit reduction work of the previous few years.